On 12 November 2025, a group of distinguished population researchers from across the Population Europe network met with the European Commissioner Dubravka Šuica and European Commission officials, including from the Joint Research Centre, to discuss policy priorities for an upcoming demographic agenda.
Demographic change in Europe can offer new opportunities, but it also comes with challenges, to which there are no simple solutions. It is crucial that researchers and policymakers collaborate more closely to evaluate the issues at hand and the potential ways forward.
In her opening remarks, the Commissioner emphasised the European Union's key political objectives in relation to demographic change. While our “longevity society” is achieving higher life expectancy on average, it also means there is a declining working-age population due to persistently low fertility rates in many European countries. Therefore, demographic change poses a significant challenge to the ambition of increasing Europe’s competitiveness while maintaining its unique social model in a sustainable way.
Alongside its 'Demography Toolbox' of possible policy options, published in 2023, the Commission intends to address these challenges through strategies and roadmaps relating, for instance, to affordable housing, poverty reduction, intergenerational fairness, skills development, and women's empowerment. Furthermore, a new Demography Report is set to be published in 2026, alongside an update of the Atlas of Demography.
The experts at the meeting addressed the following key points:
Fertility and family policy
Across the EU, birth rates have been declining. An increasing proportion of couples are having no children, or fewer children than they would either like to, or that they consider to be the ideal family size. There is no single clear cause, but rather a variety of reasons for this trend. These include the affordability of housing for families and the difficulty of balancing work and family life for both partners. Subjective factors also play a role, including pessimism among younger people about their future and negative influences from digital parallel worlds.
"Experts agree that pro-natalist policies focused solely on fertility-centred approaches and specific demographic targets are not effective."
Experts agree that pro-natalist policies focused solely on fertility-centred approaches and specific demographic targets (i.e., increasing birth rates) are not effective. Consequently, the experts were encouraging the EU to support its member states in implementing evidence-controlled social policies that strengthen supportive infrastructures for families, particularly women with children, by integrating a variety of new and existing measures that have been proven effective. Examples include parental leave schemes (also promoting gender fairness), and investment in reliable, sustainable, professional childcare and schooling.
Youth and human capital
A stronger focus on policies that invest in younger people, who are at risk of marginalisation due to their smaller population share, is crucial for the socio-economic competitiveness and democratic resilience of European societies and the fiscal sustainability of European welfare states. Instead of implementing austerity-driven policies, such as school closures and budget cuts in education, the focus should be on investing in the next generation and creating narratives that emphasise the opportunities and support available to young people, rather than perpetuating the perception of declining societal support for these age groups.
"Politics should avoid adopting a one-dimensional perspective on a certain age group."
Concrete measures could also be introduced to ease younger people's transition to independent living, such as better supporting their entry into the labour force or re-proportioning housing to younger families. This could also include investing in affordable high-quality education and skills, as well as in mental health services and support to navigate social media and AI products. However, politics should avoid adopting a one-dimensional perspective on a certain age group. The 'intergenerational lens' on all policies is crucial.
Life course perspectives
Adopting a life-course perspective on demographic change is crucial, given that inequalities among older people frequently originate in childhood and adolescence. Therefore, policies should foster equal opportunities and development from an early age in order to lay the groundwork for a fairer society later in life. Access to early child care and education is a key element in this, which also supports integration processes.
"The experts emphasised the need for innovative, high-quality healthcare systems."
With regard to older people, the experts emphasised the need for innovative, high-quality healthcare systems, which are a prerequisite for maintaining their active participation in the workforce, volunteering, civil society activities, and family care (particularly in multigenerational families, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in ageing populations). One way to achieve this is through anti-ageism policies, such as providing incentives for age-friendly companies (analogous to family-friendly ones). This would also give these companies competitive advantage in the labour market.
The role of migration for mitigating demographic change
Although migration is often considered essential for addressing labour shortages and demographic decline, evidence suggests that it cannot be the sole solution for demographic change; not least because people with a migration background are also ageing and will eventually leave the labour market, too. The potential impact of migration on specific skill shortages must be examined in greater detail. Furthermore, all population groups should be considered when it comes to mitigating the consequences of demographic change. This includes increasing female labour force participation and extending working lives.
"Incentives might be effective for distributing migrants more evenly."
Effective policy must also consider that international migrants usually prefer to settle in bigger cities, which can further increase demographic polarisation processes between urban and rural areas in ageing societies. Incentives might be effective for distributing migrants more evenly. Especially in areas with greater population diversity, there should be policies that aim to support social cohesion.
Regional specifics and comparisons
Demographic changes manifest differently across regions. Some rural areas are already experiencing depopulation and population ageing. This necessitates regionally tailored, differentiated strategies. The time dimension of certain solutions must also be considered, as they may only be effective for a limited period or even could cause harm in the long term. For example, automation of entry-level jobs may bring short-term savings and efficiency gains, but could lead to the long-term atrophy of skills. While investing in automation is a key element of future European competitiveness, acknowledged in the Draghi and Letta reports, as with migration, it is not a panacea for local, regional or national labour shortages. Thus, there is widespread acknowledgement that there is no universal solution for demographic challenges or easily transferable policies.
"The experts highlighted the need for forward-looking analyses that explore different ways of activating groups that are currently under-represented in the labour force."
In this context, the experts highlighted the need for forward-looking analyses that explore different ways of activating groups that are currently under-represented in the labour force, including younger people, migrants, women, and especially mothers with young children. Such explorations are essential to understand how increased participation from these groups could alleviate local labour shortages, improve dependency ratios, and shape region-specific development pathways with mid- to long term perspectives.
This would support policies that take into account the full range of socio-demographic and socioeconomic features of certain regions, while taking the unique conditions and references of each country into regard. The experts considered recognising national diversity as essential for effective policy action. Therefore, comparative approaches and evidence-based best-practice evaluation are needed.
Data needs
The experts highlighted the need to continue to collect and provide data, particularly by providing sustainable funding for longitudinal survey, data such as that from the GGP, GUIDE and SHARE surveys, as well as for other data and sophisticated population projections. High-quality data is essential for obtaining a deep understanding of demographic change in areas where its consequences are most keenly felt, such as within families, neighbourhoods, municipalities or regions. More granular data should also be made available to support related analyses. All of this would contribute to evidence-informed policy advice on new demographic trends, which is the prerequisite for resilience, today and in the future.
Communication
To preserve stable democratic systems in Europe and counteracting populism at a societal level, there is a need for more transdisciplinary work and educational measures, particularly to reach those who have not been addressed sufficiently so far. Clear, fact-based communication and classroom education, as well as using digital communication to inform people about demographic change, while being honest about the uncertainty of demographic processes and trade-offs between policy solutions, are essential. This can help European citizens to understand the demographic challenges ahead and how science, politics, business and other societal actors are working together to address them.
Participants
Prof. Dr Gunnar Andersson, Professor in Demography and Head of the Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Stockholm, Sweden
Prof. Dr Arnstein Aassve, Professor in Demography, Bocconi University, Coordinator of the EU-funded project “Towards a Resilient Future of Europe” (FutuRes), Chair of the Board of the Population Europe Policy Lab, Milan, Italy
Juan Luis Ballesteros, Policy Officer, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) E5 Demography and Migration, Ispra, Italy
Prof. Dr Jakub Bijak, Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton, Consortium Member of the EU-funded project “Towards a Resilient Future of Europe” (FutuRes), United Kingdom
Prof. Dr Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, Vice Rector for Research and Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography at SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Leader of the Polish research group at SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) and Chair of the Government Population Council, Warsaw, Poland
Dr Andreas Edel, Executive Secretary of Population Europe and Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Berlin and Rostock, Germany (moderation)
Prof. Jane C. Falkingham, CBE, Professor of Demography & International Social Policy and Vice President (International & Global Engagement) at the University of Southampton, Director of the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC) and Lead Researcher of Connecting Generations, Southampton, United Kingdom
Prof. Dr Anne H. Gauthier, Director of the Generations and Gender Programme, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague, and Honorary Professor of Comparative Family Studies at the University of Groningen, The Netherlands
Dr Anne Goujon, Program Director and Principal Research Scholar of the Population and Just Societies Program, Acting Research Group Leader and Principal Research Scholar at the Multidimensional Demographic Modeling Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Nina Kajander, Deputy Unit Head, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) E5 Demography and Migration, Ispra, Italy
Prof. Dr Sebastian Klüsener, Research Director and Head of the Research Area “Ageing, Mortality and Population Dynamics” at the Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, and Adjunct Professor at the Department for Sociology and Social Psychology of the University of Cologne, Germany
Marco La Marca, Member of the Cabinet of the European Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Brussels, Belgium
Prof. Dr Anna Matysiak, Professor and Head of the Interdisciplinary Centre of Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LABFAM) at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Principal Investigator of the ERC Consolidator Grant “Globalization-and Technology-Driven Labour Market Change and Fertility” (LABFER) and Vice-President of the European Association of Population Studies, Warsaw, Poland
Professor Dr Melinda Mills, MBE, Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Professor of Demography and Population Health, University of Oxford, Founder Data4Science, Oxford, United Kingdom, and Professor of Data Science and Public Health Policy at the University of Groningen, The Netherlands
Fabrizio Natale, Team Leader for Demography, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) E5 Demography and Migration, Ispra, Italy
Professor Dr Gary Pollock, Professor of Sociology at Manchester Metropolitan University and Professor of Sociology at the University of Helsinki, PI of the EU-funded “Longitudinal Educational Achievements: Reducing iNequalities” (LEARN) project and Co-Director of the survey “Growing Up in Digital Europe-EuroCohort” (GUIDE), Manchester, United Kingdom, and Helsinki, Finland
Professor Dr Diego Ramiro-Fariñas, Director of the Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) and Professor of Demography, Madrid, Spain
Dr Fabiana Scapolo, Head of Unit, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) E5 Demography and Migration, Ispra, Italy
Dr Tomáš Sobotka, Leader of the research group on Fertility and Population Change and Deputy Director of the Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences), Co-director of the Human Fertility Database, Vienna, Austria
H. E. Dubravka Šuica, The European Commissioner for Mediterranean and Vice-President of the European People’s Party, Brussels, Belgium
Prof. Dr Pieter Vanhuysse, Professor of Political Economy and Public Policy at the Department of Political Science and Public Management and the Danish Centre for Welfare Studies, University of Southern Denmark, Odense (tbc)
Prof. Dr Daniele Vignoli, Professor of Demography at the University of Florence, Scientific Director of the PhD Program in Life Course Research and Scientific Coordinator of the Research Programme Age-It (Ageing Well in an Ageing Society), Florence, Italy