Birth rates have become one of the most common topics of polarised debate. It is true that declining birth rates are a global phenomenon. But often, the information given incorrect or incomplete. As a network of Europe’s top demographers, we offer information from the point of view of science.
For this, we issue the following FAQ.
Why are birth rates declining?
Demographic research shows that birth rates are declining in Europe and other parts of the world because people have children later in life, and also because more people have only one child, as opposed to 2 or more. A third reason is that birth rates have been declining for a while already, so there are now fewer young women who can become mothers. A fourth reason is that more people choose to remain childless than did in the past.
The two biggest reasons identified for this are economic constraints on the one hand – such as housing affordability, inflation – , and the wish to achieve other things in life on the other hand, such as a career. Often, parenthood is perceived as irreconcilable with such goals, especially by women.
What do people get wrong about birth rates?
Thinking that people no longer like kids. In fact, people still like kids and want kids, as is seen in many surveys. Those people who become parents overwhelmingly see it as a good choice for their life in retrospect.
How big is the “fertility gap” really?
How large the “fertility gap” really is, is one of the big questions of debate in demography. The fertility gap is the difference between how many children people say they want, and how many they end up having. This gap is seen as a potential for policy to improve the incentives to have children, or have more children.
Surveys often suggest that most people want 2 kids, yet on average, the fertility rate in Europe is only around 1.4 children per woman. This suggests that the gap between wish and reality is large.
But it’s important to note that that the “fertility gap” is sometimes overstated. Surveys can be problematic in how they approach the topic. They tend to ask people to choose one “ideal number” of children, to which many tick “2”. Newer surveys find that many of those who say “2” are in fact almost equally happy with “1”.
What do low birth rates mean for a society?
Lower birth rates can mean that it becomes more difficult to finance education, such as schools or day care, because financing for this public infrastructure is often based on the expected number of children. This can be a problem later, when birth rates eventually rise again and there are not enough educators. Closing infrastructures also make places less attractive for people to move there, resulting in depopulation.
Low birth rates also mean a future political disbalance between younger and older voters.
What do low birth rates mean for pensions?
Some people worry that because of low birth rates, pension systems will no longer be sustainable, as today’s babies will be the people paying into the system in 20 to 30 years. Studies show, however, that the pension system will not be in danger if smart adaptive policies are put in place to prepare for demographic change. The effect of low birth rates on pensions will be much less dramatic if working life is extended slightly, if more women enter the labour market, and if the country achieves a sufficient net migration.
What can a “baby bonus” do?
The Italian government this year introduced a one-time payment of 1,000 Euro for each child born. It is plausible to assume that this will incentivise some people who were already seriously thinking about having a(nother) child, to do so. However, the long-term gain of this is put into question by experts. Says Arnstein Aassve, Professor of Demography at Bocconi University in Italy: “Cash bonuses rarely shift long-term fertility. Without tackling deeper structural issues, effects are minimal or non-existent.”
Which policies can bring up the birth rates quickly?
Research has a clear answer to this: there is no policy to bring up the birth rate quickly. Even if birth rates rose a bit now, it would not bring up the birth rates quickly, because there are already fewer potential mothers than in the past.
It is a consensus among demographers that no reform will bring back fertility rates to levels of the 1990s any time soon, so the demographic reality of Europe in the near future is clearly one of a more aged society. This, however, is not an issue, as long as Europe’s governments prepare for this demographic shift.
An important question is the motivation for bringing up birth rates. As an adaptive policy to demographic change, it is ineffective. However, if the motivation is to support families, children and women in their choices, there are effective policies.
What should policy do for parents?
Demographers usually recommend a mix of policies. One is to create a family- and baby-friendly environment. The idea is to make it not only feasible, but easy, to raise children while pursuing other life goals. It is expected that such measures could entice people to have children earlier again, and to have more second children again.
Read more: How did the pandemic affect birth rates?