How can interdisciplinary science shed light on features of migration to help policy makers make better and more robust decisions? An appealing possibility is offered by computer simulations, including individual-level agent-based models. In such models, agents can represent various entities, such as migrants, other actors, or policy makers, all interacting with one another and with their environments.
The models can be complex and can shed light on some of the complexity of migration processes, illuminating policy trade-offs and key areas of uncertainty. However, their design needs to be specific to answering well-defined research or policy questions. In this brief, several lessons from agent-based models of migrant route formation and persistence are presented.
Key Messages:
- Migration flows can respond to policy changes in unpredictable ways, as a result of complex environments of the underlying drivers, agency of prospective migrants and the way in which they make decisions.
- Computer simulation modelling can help decision makers better understand the complexity of migration processes, as well as shed light on intended and unintended consequences of different policy options.
- Simulation models of migration route formation highlight the role of information and trust in shaping the ways in which migrants move across unknown terrain, and to identify promising areas for new data collection.
- To safeguard against misuse, the simulation models for policy need to be ethical by design: open and transparent about the modelling processes, and honest about the uncertainty of the results and the trade-offs involved.
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Acknowledgement:
This work has received funding from the European Research Council, grant no. 725232 Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies. www.baps-project.eu