Fertility rates across Europe have fallen to historic lows, and the reasons remain contested. Poland is a critical case: its total fertility rate dropped to 1.15 in 2023, and recent restrictions on abortion have added to uncertainty surrounding family planning. To understand how different factors shape intentions to have children, researchers from LabFam at the University of Warsaw—Anna Kurowska, Anna Matysiak and Magdalena Grabowska—conducted a factorial survey among 1,337 Poles aged 20–35.
Participants were presented with four hypothetical future scenarios that varied across six key areas: stable and gainful employment, housing opportunities, access to childcare, men’s participation in domestic work, climate change prospects, and access to abortion in cases of fetal malformation. For each scenario, respondents rated how likely they would be to have a first or second child, using a scale from 0 to 10. This approach allowed the researchers to isolate the specific impact of each factor and compare their relative effects.
Their findings confirm that material security remains the foundation of fertility planning. Across childless women, childless men, mothers, and fathers, opportunities to purchase a home and the availability of stable, well‑paid jobs consistently ranked among the most influential factors. Among mothers, in particular, opportunities to purchase a home were as important as access to childcare, men’s participation in domestic work, and access to abortion.
Crucially, the study also highlights reproductive autonomy as an important and often overlooked, driver of fertility intentions. For childless women, access to abortion in cases of fetal malformation was the single most important factor shaping their intentions to have children. Among mothers, it ranked alongside material security. In contrast, abortion access was irrelevant for unpartnered or less‑educated childless men.
These findings suggest that reproductive rights are not in tension with higher fertility. On the contrary, they appear to be a precondition for it, reinforcing earlier evidence that Poland’s recent tightening of abortion legislation has contributed to a decline in births.
Work–family reconciliation remains a central concern, particularly for women. Better access to affordable childcare and more equal sharing of domestic responsibilities boosted fertility intentions among women, especially among mothers. Childless women also responded positively to these dimensions, although more moderately and mainly when having a partner.
Men’s fertility intentions were largely unaffected by hypothetical increases in male involvement in housework, yet there was no indication that greater gender equality would discourage them. The limited influence of the climate change scenarios, especially among childless men and those with lower education, suggests that immediate economic and social concerns outweigh longer-term environmental considerations in shaping fertility plans.
Many of the challenges identified in Poland: economic insecurity, high housing costs, persistent gender inequality, and gaps in childcare provision are shared across low-fertility societies. These findings point to the need for a comprehensive policy response. Measures that strengthen economic security, expand access to affordable childcare, promote gender equality within households, and safeguard reproductive autonomy are all essential to support young adults in realising their family aspirations.