Miguel González-Leonardo, Michaela Potančoková, Dilek Yildiz and Francisco Rowe published a first study analysing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on immigration flows in a global sample of countries. They found important cross-national variations, from large drops in Australia, Spain or Sweden to minor changes in Finland, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland or Denmark. Travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements show an association with changes in immigration, while work and school closures and unemployment rise show no relationship.
The impact of the pandemic on population trends is undeniable. Various studies have analysed the effects of COVID-19 on life expectancy (e.g., Marois et al., 2020; Aburto et al, 2021) and fertility (e.g., Aasen et al., 2021; Sobotka et al., 2021). However, less is known on the pandemic impacts in international migration. Border closures, lockdowns, and other mobility restrictions have led to a decline in international migration – but how significant it was across countries remains a question.
A new IIASA-led study published in PLoS ONE, in collaboration with the University of Liverpool, quantified the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows during 2020 in 12 European countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the Netherlands), as well as Australia, Canada, and the United States. The authors used statistical modeling to forecast immigration counts in the absence of COVID-19 and compared these values to observed immigration counts. They then explored how potential driving forces, such as travel restrictions, mobility restrictions, lockdowns, work and school closures, and increases in unemployment, might have affected immigration flows.
The authors found that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. The extent of the decline varied greatly between countries, with Australia, Spain and Sweden showing the largest drop: 59.9%. 45.4% and 36.4%, respectively. Immigration decreased by between 15.5% and 27.2% in the United States (27.2%), France (26.5%), Norway (25.5%), Germany (21.9%), Italy (21.6%), Canada (20.2%) and the Netherlands (15.5%), although results were not statistically significant in Germany. Immigration declined by less than 15% in Denmark, Ireland, Austria and Switzerland where results were not statistically significant. Surprisingly, Finland recorded a slightly higher than expected immigration flow, yet again, these results were not statistically insignificant.
International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions, and stay-at-home requirements seem to be important drivers modeling changes in immigration, although some countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closures and unemployment, however, showed no relationship with changes in immigration.
The study shows some first empirical evidence of the extent of immigration decline drawing on a global sample of countries. Yet, the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on international migration are to be established. Monitoring movements between countries and understanding changes in the global network of international migration is essential to ensure appropriate policies in countries where natural change cannot sustain population growth and where labor force deficits exist.