Summary:
- Demographic research shows that causes for declining birth rates include economic, cultural, and social factors.
- No policy can bring up birth rates quickly.
- Experts recommend a mix of policies, to support young parents and create baby-friendly environments.
Why do people have fewer kids? Birth rates have become one of the most common topics of polarised debate. It is true that declining birth rates are a global phenomenon. But often, the information given is incorrect or incomplete. As a network of Europe’s top demographers, we offer information from the point of view of science. The following FAQ gives key causes of demographic trends around fertility.
Demographic research shows that birth rates are declining in Europe and other parts of the world because people have children later in life, and also because more people have only one child, as opposed to 2 or more. A third reason is that birth rates have been declining for a while already, so there are now fewer young women who can become mothers. A fourth reason is that more people choose to remain childless than did in the past.
Key factors
The two key factors identified for low birth rates are: 1. economic constraints, such as trouble to afford housing, inflation, high cost of living; 2. the wish to achieve other things in life, such as a career, which is often perceived as irreconcilable with parenthood, especially by women.
Policy implications
Lower birth rates can mean that it becomes more difficult to finance education, such as schools or day care, because financing for this public infrastructure is often based on the expected number of children. This can be a problem later, when birth rates eventually rise again and there are not enough educators. Closing infrastructures also make places less attractive for people to move there, resulting in depopulation.
Low birth rates also mean a future political disbalance between younger and older voters.
What do low birth rates mean for pensions?
Some people worry that because of low birth rates, pension systems will no longer be sustainable, as today’s babies will be the people paying into the system in 20 to 30 years. Studies show, however, that the pension system will not be in danger if smart adaptive policies are put in place to prepare for demographic change. The effect of low birth rates on pensions will be much less dramatic if working life is extended slightly, if more women enter the labour market, and if the country achieves a sufficient net migration.
What policy can do
Researchers have a clear answer to this: there is no policy to bring up the birth rate quickly.
It is a consensus among demographers that no reform will bring back fertility rates to levels of the 1990s any time soon. Even if birth rates increased, it would not bring up the birth rates quickly, because there are already fewer potential mothers than in the past.
As a result, the demographic reality of Europe in the near future is clearly one of a more aged society. This, however, is not seen as an issue in and of itself, as long as Europe’s governments prepare for this demographic shift.
Policymakers must ask themselves what the motivation for bringing up birth rates is. As an adaptive policy to demographic change, it is ineffective. However, if the motivation is to support families, children and women in their choices, there are effective policies.
What is the “fertility gap”?
The fertility gap is an important debate demography. The fertility gap is the difference between how many children people say they want, and how many they end up having. This gap is seen as a potential for policy. It suggests that there is room to improve the incentives to have children, or to have more children.
Surveys often suggest that most people want 2 kids, yet on average, the fertility rate in Europe is only around 1.4 children per woman. This suggests that the gap between wish and reality is large.
But it’s important to note that that some researchers suggest that the “fertility gap” can be overstated. Surveys can give varying results depending on how they approach the topic. Usually, surveys tend to ask people to choose one “ideal number” of children, to which many tick “2”. Newer surveys, however, find that many of those who say “2” are in fact almost equally happy with “1”. As a result, the data around fertility intentions is contested, and experts say that more research is be needed.
Common misconceptions about birth rates
What do people get wrong about low birth rates in Europe? There is a common misconception that birth rates are low because people no longer like kids. In fact, people still like kids and want kids, as is seen in many surveys. Those people who become parents overwhelmingly see it as a good choice for their life in retrospect.
What can a “baby bonus” do?
Some governments have introduced a one-time payment for each child born. It is plausible to assume that this will incentivise some people who were already seriously thinking about having a(nother) child, to do so. However, the long-term gain of this is put into question by experts. Says Arnstein Aassve, Professor of Demography at Bocconi University in Italy: “Cash bonuses rarely shift long-term fertility. Without tackling deeper structural issues, effects are minimal or non-existent.”
What policy can do to support young parents
Demographers usually recommend a mix of policies to support young parents. One the one hand, there are policies which allow young people to combine employment and parenthood easily, such as income-related parental leave and well-developed childcare.
Another recommendation is to create a family- and baby-friendly environment in society at large. The idea is to make it not only feasible, but easy, to raise children while pursuing other life goals. It is expected that such measures could entice people to have children earlier again, and to have more second children again.
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