"Migration is one of the worst predictable elements of the puzzle".
An interview with Jakub Bijak (University of Southampton), winner of the Allianz European Demographer Award 2015.
Questions:
1. People often think of projections as a “crystal ball” to predict the future. What do you personally find fascinating about forecasts and projections in the field of demography?
2. What are the main reasons that make projecting international migration in Europe so difficult?
3. What kind of social phenomena are you able to reproduce or simulate with the methods you use?
4. How can you reconstruct the number of victims in armed conflicts?
5. You work with agent-based modelling. How does this work and what do you like most about this method?
6. According to your research, uncertainty is an important factor in any forecast or projection, why?
7. How do you integrate uncertainty into the practice of forecasting?
8. How can forecasts become more useful for policy makers?
The Population Europe Inter-Face Series has been published with financial support from the Progress programme of the European Union in the framework of the project ”Supporting a Partnership for Enhancing Europe’s Capacity to Tackle Demographic and Societal Change”.