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Header Newsletter

Population Europe Newsletter - December 2019

Demography drives your future

This is the newsletter of Population Europe, the network of Europe's leading demographic research centres.

Books and Reports
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Books and Reports: Ageing and Employment Policies: Working Better With Age
People today are living longer than ever before, but what is a boon for individuals can be challenging for societies. If nothing is done to change existing work and retirement patterns, the number of older inactive people who will need to be supported by each worker could rise by around 40% between 2018 and 2050 on average in the OECD area. This would put a brake on rising living standards as well as enormous pressure on younger generations who will be financing social protection systems. Improving employment prospects of older workers will be crucial.

This report by the OECD provides a synthesis of the main challenges faced by countries as workers live longer, as well as policy recommendationsand a set of international best practices to foster employability, labour demand and incentives to work at an older age.

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Books and Reports: The Challenging Roles of Informal Carers
There are different approaches to responding to the growing longterm care needs of ageing populations across the UNECE region. Societies rely to a varying extent on the unpaid labour of informal carers who cover an estimated 70 to 95 percent of all care needs. While informal unpaid care saves public spending on formal care services, the reliance on informal care has many hidden costs.

Societies rely to a varying extent on the unpaid labour of informal carers. If not adequately supported in their role, informal carers can face negative impacts on their health and well-being; intensive informal caregiving can also result in higher demand and costs for health care as a consequence of its negative impact on the physical and mental health of carers, reduced labour market participation and consequently higher risks of poverty and social exclusion.

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Books and Reports: Pathways to Health
This book presents a rigorous enquiry into life course processes that are thought to influence health, integrating the latest methodologies for the study of pathways that link socio-demographic circumstances to health with an emphasis on the mediating factors that lie on these pathways.

This book presents a rigorous enquiry into life course processes that are thought to influence health, integrating the latest methodologies for the study of pathways that link socio-demographic circumstances to health with an emphasis on the mediating factors that lie on these pathways.

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Books and Reports: Policy Brief: “Broadband Internet, Fertility and Work from Home”
The Sociology of Development section of the American Sociological Association has published a policy brief written by members of the Population Europe network: Francesco C. Billari (Bocconi University), Osea Giuntella (University of Pittsburgh), and Luca Stella (Bocconi University and Institute of Labor Economics, IZA). This brief, "Broadband Internet, Fertility and Work from Home", uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to look at the possible impacts of access to high speed Internet on fertility choices in a low fertility setting.

The Sociology of Development section of the American Sociological Association has published a policy brief written by members of the Population Europe network: Francesco C. Billari (Bocconi University), Osea Giuntella (University of Pittsburgh), and Luca Stella (Bocconi University and Institute of Labor Economics, IZA). This brief, "Broadband Internet, Fertility and Work from Home", uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to look at the possible impacts of access to high speed Internet on fertility choices in a low fertility setting.

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Books and Reports: Causal Inference Book
Jamie Robins and Miguel Hernán at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health have written a book that provides a cohesive presentation of concepts of, and methods for, causal inference. Much of this material is currently scattered across journals in several disciplines or confined to technical articles. They expect that the book will be of interest to anyone interested in causal inference, e.g., epidemiologists, statisticians, psychologists, economists, sociologists, political scientists, computer scientists, etc.

Jamie Robins and Miguel Hernán at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health have written a book that provides a cohesive presentation of concepts of, and methods for, causal inference. The book is divided in 3 parts of increasing difficulty: causal inference without models, causal inference with models, and causal inference from complex longitudinal data.

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Books and Reports: The Hidden Affliction: Sexually Transmitted Infections and Infertility in History
A multidisciplinary group of prominent scholars investigates the historical relationship between sexually transmitted infections and infertility. Untreated gonorrhea and chlamydia cause infertility in a proportion of women and men. Unlike the much-feared venereal disease of syphilis--"the pox"--gonorrhea and chlamydia are often symptomless, leaving victims unaware of the threat to their fertility. Science did not unmask the causal microorganisms until the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Their effects on fertility in human history remain mysterious.

A multidisciplinary group of prominent scholars investigates the historical relationship between sexually transmitted infections and infertility. Science did not unmask the causal microorganisms until the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Their effects on fertility in human history remain mysterious. This is the first volume to address the subject across more than two thousand years of human history.

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Books and Reports: Prospective Longevity: A New Vision of Population Aging
From two leading experts, a revolutionary new way to think about and measure aging. Aging is a complex phenomenon. We usually think of chronological age as a benchmark, but it is actually a backward way of defining lifespan. It tells us how long we’ve lived so far, but what about the rest of our lives?

Leading experts Warren C. Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov provide a new way to measure individual and population ageing. Instead of counting how many years we’ve lived, we should think about the number of years we have left, our “prospective age.”

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Books and Reports: Policy Brief: "Treating all children equally? Why policies should adapt to evolving family realities"
In this policy brief on child well-being, the OECD observes that children's experiences of family life are increasingly diverse. The growing fluidity of family life challenges tax/benefit systems to be more responsive to changes in children's living arrangements.

In this policy brief on child well-being, the OECD observes that children's experiences of family life are increasingly diverse. The growing fluidity of family life challenges tax/benefit systems to be more responsive to changes in children's living arrangements.

Event Review
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Freedom of Choice – The Foundation of Family Policies in Europe?
Within the framework of the H2020 Project Generations and Gender Programme – Evaluate, Plan, Initiate (GGP-EPI), two policy dialogue events were held at the German House in London on the 4th of November 2019. The first was an Expert Meeting with 22 participants from academia, policy and civil society organisations. Following that event, a public panel discussion was held in the evening on the topic: Freedom of Choice – The Foundation of Family Policies in Europe? Both discussions focused on the comparison between Germany and the UK.  

Within the framework of the H2020 Project Generations and Gender Programme – Evaluate, Plan, Initiate (GGP-EPI), two policy dialogue events were held at the German House in London on the 4th of November 2019. The first was an Expert Meeting with 22 participants from academia, policy and civil society organisations. Following that event, a public panel discussion was held in the evening with Dr Katarina Barley, Prof. Michaela Kreyenfeld and Prof. Wendy Sigle.

News
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News: European Demographer Award
Deadline: 12 January 2020
Demographic change is one of the major challenges European societies will face in upcoming decades. In order to support outstanding research on the causes and consequences of population developments, Population Europe, the network of Europe’s foremost demographic research institutes, in collaboration with the Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft and the Berlin Demography Forum, invites nominations for the European Demographer Award. 

Nominations for the European Demographer Award are due by 12 January 2020. Population Europe, in collaboration with the Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft and the Berlin Demography Forum, will present this prize to two researchers at the forefront of population studies on demographic change in Europe.

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News: New Social Policy and Law Shared Database
SPLASH is now online!
The “Social Policy and Law Shared Database” (SPLASH) offers access to contextual data through the development of two substantive sections: Data and Policy. Access SPLASH at: splash-db.eu

The “Social Policy and Law Shared Database” (SPLASH) offers access to contextual data through the development of two substantive sections: Data and Policy.

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News: IPUMS International 2019 Data Release
It’s that time of year again: IPUMS International data release season! This year’s release includes new 20% samples for all current Brazil data sets, additional samples for Cambodia, Fiji, and Nepal, new samples for Guatemala, Laos, Russia, and Togo, and Labor Force Survey samples for Spain and Italy. All of these new samples and all current data can be accessed at international.ipums.org.

This year’s release includes new 20% samples for all current Brazil data sets, additional samples for Cambodia, Fiji, and Nepal, new samples for Guatemala, Laos, Russia, and Togo, and Labor Force Survey samples for Spain and Italy. All of these new samples and all current data can be accessed on the IPUMS website.

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 Resources for Educators
Fertility rates in the United States dropped to their lowest level in recorded history, with women having an average of 1.7 births in their lifetime. That’s one of the key findings in the Population Reference Bureau's 2019 World Population Data Sheet. They estimate that by 2050, India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country with an estimated 1.67 billion people, while more people will be living in Nigeria than the United States.

Fertility rates in the United States dropped to their lowest level in recorded history, with women having an average of 1.7 births in their lifetime. That’s one of the key findings in the Population Reference Bureau's 2019 World Population Data Sheet. 

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News: Chance to Field Questions in the European Social Survey
For a chance to include questions in Round 11 (2022/23) of the European Social Survey (ESS), the call for proposals is now open until January next year. This open competition offers teams of researchers the chance to include around 30 questions on a single academic and/or policy concern within Europe.

For a chance to include questions in Round 11 (2022/23) of the European Social Survey (ESS), the call for proposals is now open until January next year. This open competition offers teams of researchers the chance to include around 30 questions on a single academic and/or policy concern within Europe.

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News: New Partner Institute: Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR) at Umeå University
Population Europe welcomes the Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR), a unit at Umeå University, as the 34th partner in the Network of Europe's leading demographic research centres.

Population Europe welcomes the Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR), a unit at Umeå University, as the 34th partner in the Network of Europe's leading demographic research centres.

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News: Judith Kohlenberger, Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Rengs Receive the Kurt-Rothschild-Award 2019
Judith Kohlenberger, Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Rengs have received the Renner Institut Kurt-Rothschild-Award 2019 for their "Displaced Persons in Austria Survey (DiPAS): Education, Qualifications and Moral Concepts of Refugees in Austria."

The Kurt-Rothschild-Award 2019 is given to researchers and projects that direct their focus of analysis towards this immanent embeddedness of economic developments. This year’s awardees accept the additional challenges, complexities and difficulties that come with such an approach and put them at the centre of their work.

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Universität Wien Logo
On 1 October 2019 the University of Vienna has opened a new Department of Demography in the Faculty of Social Sciences. Headed by Wolfgang Lutz, this new department will be a strong university-based pillar of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital which also includes IIASA’s World Population Program and the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.

Headed by Wolfgang Lutz, this new department will be a strong university-based pillar of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital which also includes IIASA’s World Population Program and the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.

Policy Insights
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Working Parents' Mental Health Improves When Young Children Are in Nursery School
Working parents have better mental health when their young children are looked after part-time in nursery schools or other formal childcare, rather than just by relatives, research says. Research on 6,700 parents of one- and two-year-olds in 29 European countries, including the UK, found that parents using part-time formal childcare had better mental health than those who used informal childcare only.

<p>Research on 6,700 parents of one- and two-year-olds in 29 European countries, including the UK, found that parents using part-time formal childcare had better mental health than those who used informal childcare only.</p>

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Werkstattgespräch: Wie verhält sich Wissenschaft in kontroversen politischen Debatten?
This working paper is based on the outcomes of a workshop discussion with experts from different scientific fields who work at the intersection of research, politics, economics and society. It took place on June 3, 2019, at the office of the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina in Berlin.

<p>This working paper is based on the outcomes of a workshop discussion with experts from different scientific fields who work at the intersection of research, politics, economics and society. The value of scientific work is no longer measured just by whether it meets research-based quality criteria, but by its social impact.</p>

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Why Are Birth Rates in Sweden Falling?
Fewer and fewer children are being born in Sweden, while the average age of first-time mothers is rising. The latest figures from Statistics Sweden show that fertility rates in Sweden have fallen every year since 2009, and that the average age at first birth is the highest over a very long time. But none of the explanations researchers referred to in the past seem to be sufficient this time. So how can this development be explained?

<p>Fewer and fewer children are being born in Sweden, while the average age of first-time mothers is rising. The latest figures from Statistics Sweden show that fertility rates in Sweden have fallen every year since 2009, and that the average age at first birth is the highest over a very long time. But none of the explanations researchers referred to in the past seem to be sufficient this time. So how can this development be explained?</p>
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Pop Digest
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Getting Out What You Put In
Does having highly educated adult children reduce mortality risks for parents with low educational attainment in Europe? Albert Sabater and Elspeth Graham (Centre for Population Change and the University of St Andrews) together with Alan Marshall (University of Edinburgh) examined data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to answer this question.

Does having highly educated adult children reduce mortality risks for parents with low educational attainment in Europe? Albert Sabater, Elspeth Graham, Alan Marshall investigate this question.

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Health Burdens of Caregiving
A study by Damiano Uccheddu, Anne H. Gauthier, Nardi Steverink and Tom Emery used data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to identify the impact of the transition into and out of providing care for a spouse on the health of carers.

A study by Damiano Uccheddu, Anne H. Gauthier, Nardi Steverink and Tom Emery used data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to identify the impact of the transition into and out of providing care for a spouse on the health of carers.

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Finding Inter-Ethnic Love at Work
A study by Rahnu et al. looked at longitudinal register data from Statistics Findland to see how the share of immigrants in one’s workplace and in one’s residential neighbourhood influences the chances of a native Finn choosing a foreign-born partner. They found positive relationships for both domains.

A study by Rahnu et al. looked at longitudinal register data from Statistics Findland to see how the share of immigrants in one’s workplace and in one’s residential neighbourhood influences the chances of a native Finn choosing a foreign-born partner. They found positive relationships for both domains.

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Sibling Similarities
Karhula, Erola, Raab and Fasang used Finnish register data and found similarities in socio-economic trajectories between siblings, with similarities proving strongest among the most and least advantaged. They concluded that taking a life course perspective is key to examining issues of social mobility.

Karhula, Erola, Raab and Fasang used Finnish register data and found similarities in socio-economic trajectories between siblings, with similarities proving strongest among the most and least advantaged. They concluded that taking a life course perspective is key to examining issues of social mobility.

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Education Gap, Integration Gap
Triventi looked at national data on the whole population of students enrolled in the fifth and sixth grade in Italy in 2012 to investigate whether teachers grade students with a migration background (SMBs) less generously than native students with comparable academic skills. He found that SMBs who achieved similar standardised test scores nevertheless received lower average grades in both reading and mathematics.

Triventi looked at national data on the whole population of students enrolled in the fifth and sixth grade in Italy in 2012 to investigate whether teachers grade students with a migration background (SMBs) less generously than native students with comparable academic skills. He found that SMBs who achieved similar standardised test scores nevertheless received lower average grades in both reading and mathematics.

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Neighbourhood Conditions and Old-Age Depression
Gergő Baranyi and colleagues used data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to assess longitudinal associations of neighbourhood nuisances and access to services with depression among older European adults. They found that those exposed to neighbourhood nuisances, i.e., higher poverty, more neighbourhood problems (e.g., crime, noise, littering) or higher air pollution, had a 36 per cent increased chance of developing depression.

Gergő Baranyi and colleagues used data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to assess longitudinal associations of neighbourhood nuisances and access to services with depression among older European adults. They found that those exposed to neighbourhood nuisances had a 36 per cent increased chance of developing depression.

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Are Married People Happier?
Numerous studies have been published that have examined subjective wellbeing (SWB) and marriage status, finding that married people tend to have a higher SWB. But in today’s society, more couples are opting for cohabitation, which includes many benefits associated with marriage. This then leaves the question of whether individuals who cohabit have similar levels of SWB as married people.

Perelli-Harris et al. investigated whether individuals who cohabit have similar levels of subjective wellbeing (SWB) as married people. They studied events and characteristics correlated with entrance into marriage; whether marriage may be more advantageous for those with a lower or higher tendency to marry; and, finally, whether there is variation by country and gender between partnership type and SWB.

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Money and Babies
Having children seems to be one of the main factors dividing the careers of women and men. Mothers who return to work after giving birth often face substantial wage losses, whereas fathers have been found to enjoy modest wage gains after the birth of a child. However, most studies have overlooked whether such wage premiums have changed over time amid transformations in the policy context surrounding fatherhood.

Gender pay gaps persist in high-income countries and beyond. Having children, in particular, seems to be one of the main factors dividing the careers of women and men. Mothers who return to work after giving birth often face substantial wage losses, whereas fathers have been found to enjoy modest wage gains after the birth of a child. However, most studies have overlooked whether such wage premiums have changed over time amid transformations in the policy context surrounding fatherhood.

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Well-being Alone Won't Make It
Research looking at Western European countries tends to suggest that the negative effect of parenthood on individuals’ subjective well-being is one of the key factors explaining low fertility trends. In a new study, Márta K. Radó (Postdoctoral Researcher at Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam and Research Fellow at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences) tested this association for Hungary, which is an especially interesting case for two main reasons. First, low fertility is a long-term trend in the country.

Research looking at Western European countries tends to suggest that the negative effect of parenthood on individuals’ subjective well-being is one of the key factors explaining low fertility trends. In a new study, Márta K. Radó tested this association for Hungary, which is an especially case for two main reasons. First, low fertility is a long-term trend in the country. Second, this persistently low fertility rate is paired with one of the longest and most extensively used periods of parental leave in Europe.

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Do You Think We Live Too Long?
Our lives are getting longer and longer – are we perhaps living “too long”? So far, little is known about how long people want to live, and most of the few existing studies have focused exclusively on middle-aged and older adults. Young adults are expected to live even longer than current generations, and they are also in the midst of making a number of decisions and establishing behavioural patterns that will dramatically affect their future development and health.

To address the lack of research on how long young adults want to live, Bowen et al. conducted a survey of over 700 university students in Austria, Norway, Poland and Russia. They asked students how long they want to live (preferred life expectancy), how long they expect to live (subjective life expectancy) and how long they think an average person of the same age and sex will live (belief about average cohort life expectancy).

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When Education Is Not Enough to Reduce Inequalities
Since the onset of the recession in the late 2000s, youth "Not in Education, Employment or Training" (NEET) have received much public attention. Some examples of policymakers’ concerns include the long-term effects of NEET status on educational and labour market outcomes, health problems among NEETs, and the effects of a large NEET population on social cohesion in European societies. This study investigates childhood determinants of NEET status after compulsory school in Finland.

Since the onset of the recession in the late 2000s, youth "Not in Education, Employment or Training" (NEET) have received much public attention. A recent study by Joonas Pitkänen, Hanna Remes, Heta Moustgaard and Pekka Martikainen from the Population Research Unit at University of Helsinki investigates childhood determinants of NEET status after compulsory school in Finland.

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Where Do People Move Following Separation?
Previous research has shown that separation – either from marriage or from cohabitation – has negative consequences for individuals’ financial and emotional well-being. In this study, we focus on the consequences of separation for individuals’ housing outcomes. Housing, and specifically access to homeownership, is an important dimension of inequality in industrialised countries. Those who can afford to become homeowners will accumulate further advantage over time whereas those who cannot are likely to be disadvantaged.

In this study, Júlia Mikolai & Hill Kulu focus on the consequences of separation for individuals’ housing outcomes. Their findings suggest that regardless of cross-national differences in policies, welfare provisions and housing markets, individuals face a period of uncertainty regarding their housing outcomes following separation; they are less likely to be homeowners than those who are in a steady relationship.

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Making Father’s Involvement the Norm
In the Nordic countries, it has become common through extensive family policies for both mothers and fathers to be able to take parental leave following the arrival of a new child. Norway, for example, offers parents the chance to take over a year’s worth of leave. As part of this leave, a father’s quota was introduced and this has led to a dramatic increase in the number of fathers taking leave. But what impact does a father’s involvement have on a woman’s fertility decisions?

Using administrative registers that covered the entire Norwegian population, Trude Lappegård and Tom Kornstad found that the higher the share of fathers using parental leave in the municipality (social norm), the more likely women were to have their first and second child. Looking at the decision to have a second child, the effect of father’s engagement is actually stronger compared to the decision of becoming parents for the first time.

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Nothing Lasts Forever
A new paper by Andrea Monti sheds light on rising complexities in current migration trends by analysing differences in emigration patterns and propensities among foreign‐born people, focusing on return and onward migration separately. The paper uses high quality, full population register data on a relatively large and heterogeneous migrant population in Sweden.

Confirming previous assumptions and based on the migration population in Sweden, the paper finds that a majority of re‐emigration is in fact returning to the country of birth. However, onward migration is more common for some groups, such as among forced migrants and migrants from the horn of Africa and other sub‐Saharan countries.