What impact did demographic aspects have on the 2025 German federal elections? This question was explored by Population Europe in the online workshop “The 2025 federal election in the context of demographic change”, which took place on April 3, 2025 in context of the Berlin Demography Days 2025 (27 + 28 October).
Experts discussed which aspects were decisive for the election and to what extent demography can help clarify this question. The event was organized together with the Demographic Policy Working Group of the German Association for Demography (DGD).
Deutsche Version
The participants
Prof. Dr. Martin Elff, Professor of Political Sociology at Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen
Dr. Anna-Sophie Heinze, Postdoc in political science and principal investigator of the “NurtureDEMOS” research project at Trier University
Jürgen Kaube, Editor of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Dr. Sabine Pokorny, Research associate at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's analysis and consulting department
Dr. Yvonne Schroth, Board member of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen e.V.
The moderators
Dr. Andreas Edel, Executive Secretary of Population Europe
Prof. Dr. Tilman Mayer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Bonn
Key discussion themes
The panel discussed how demographic factors influenced the election results. As expected, the CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats and the Christian Social Union) benefited considerably from older voter groups (60 years and older). This circumstance led to an election campaign that primarily emphasized the interests of older people, while the interests of younger voters received less attention. The demographic change resulting from the ageing population is thus reflected in the election programs and is likely to influence the focus of the future government, too.
The debate on regulating immigration dominated the election campaign and approached the topic primarily from a security perspective. The far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) benefited most from this topic widely discussed by parties and the media. The panel underscored that when the moderate right moves further to the right in questions like migration, the extreme right ultimately benefits, which has already been shown in political science studies.
"There is a risk that parties will shift their positions to better reflect the interests of older voters."
The AfD's success among young voters highlighted that this age group is neither generally left nor right, but is very diverse in its political views. With young people under 30 years of age making up only 13% of the electorate, there is a risk that parties will shift their positions to better reflect the interests of older voters. Furthermore, in later birth cohorts, party loyalty to the traditional 'people's parties' CDU (Christian Democrats) and SPD (Social Democrats) is weaker and less common than in earlier birth cohorts. At the same time, young people are increasingly focusing on specific issues and candidates when casting their vote rather than sticking to one party. They also change their minds more frequently. This effect has been observed in previous elections, too.
The AfD's electoral success also reflected perceived socio-economic disadvantage. AfD voters felt particularly disadvantaged or had the feeling that their problems were not being taken seriously. However, this was not necessarily linked to objective factors, as the election results showed that higher-income voter groups increasingly voted for the AfD as well.
"The AfD is by no means only popular in East Germany."
A growing number of Germans believe that democracy is not working well or in their favour, which the panel interpreted as a sign of long-term societal changes in the perception of democracy and trust in politics. It is noteworthy that most AfD voters are now convinced that the AfD can actually achieve their goals and hardly vote this party out of mere protest anymore. It is also apparent that the AfD is by no means only popular in East Germany, but now receives about two-thirds of its votes from western Germany.
The panel emphasized that social structure plays a significant role in voting behaviour. For example, 60% of young men (under 35 years old) with little formal education in East Germany voted for the AfD. By contrast, young women in urban areas with more formal education tended to hold left-wing progressive views.
"The normalization of right-wing positions across Europe has generally led to more votes for right-wing parties."
Furthermore, the normalization of right-wing positions across Europe has generally led to more votes for right-wing parties in general that are currently managing to serve the need for social recognition among men. This is particularly true for younger men, who are encouraged by right-wing movements to base their identity on right-wing nationalism and masculinity.
Whether demographic explanations alone are sufficient to explain political developments is questionable. While the demographic structure remains largely constant over the period of a single legislative period and only develops slowly, government action and media reporting in particular have changed in the last three years, which presumably contributed significantly to the election result. Nevertheless, demographic factors and demographic change will play a role in the long term. The ageing society is already reflected in the issues prioritized by political parties. And the geographical, economic and educational differences between demographic groups will continue to be reflected in election results.
The Berlin Demography Days 2025 receive funding from the Federal Ministry of the Interior and Community (BMI), the Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) and the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (BMFSFJ).