The Demographic Impact of the EU Referendum

Key messages:

• EU-born migrants are more likely to be young, in employment, skilled with qualifications and in good health than UK citizens. Many of them are in partnerships with UK-born partners and a significant share of these couples have children.

• Withdrawing entitlements to social support from EU migrants, and thereby individualising their social risks, makes it much harder for work-focused migrants to use their skills and capabilities to the fullest extent – with significantly negative consequences for the UK economy.

• A Brexit may push certain EU migrants to apply for citizenship who would otherwise not contemplate applying. This, contrary to the expectation that a Brexit would limit the number of EU migrants in Britain, is likely to increase the number of British citizens possessing a broader set of political and social rights.

References:

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• Bridgen, P., Meyer, T. and J. Moran (2016): Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants’ economic achievements. CPC Briefing Paper 34, ESRC Centre for Population Change, UK.

• Estevez-Abe, M., Iversen, T. and D. Soskice (2001): Social Protection and the Formation of Skills: A Reinterpretation of the Welfare State, In Hall, P. and D. Soskice (eds.): Varieties of Capitalism The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage, Oxford: Oxford University Press: 145-183.

• Falkingham, J., Evandrou, M., Feng, Z. and A. Vlachantoni (2016): Who are the EU migrants in England and Wales? CPC Briefing Paper 33, ESRC Centre for Population Change, UK.

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• Van Kersbergen, K., and A. Hemerijck (2012): Two decades of change in Europe: The emergence of the social investment state, In: Journal of Social Policy 41(3): 475-492.