German version
How could demographic change affect the recruitment needs of the armed forces and in the future? Population Europe first addressed this issue more than ten years ago (see below, Wenke Apt, 2013). But in light of the increasingly tense geo-political context for Europe, we revisited this discussion in the event “Defence Meets Demography: The Future of Security and Emergency Services Needs in Aging Societies” on July 29, 2025. It was part of the Einstein Center Population Diversity's Tuesday Dialogues Series.
At the event, three leading experts discussed the challenges facing security and emergency services in the context of demographic change in Europe:
- Christian Leuprecht, Professor at the Royal Military College of Canada; Director of the Institute of Intergovernmental Relations at the School of Policy Studies at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, Canada; currently visiting fellow at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels
- Jennifer D. Sciubba, President and CEO of the Population Reference Bureau; Senior Associate at the Hess Center for New Frontiers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.
- Robert Sieger, Lieutenant General and President of the Federal Office of Personnel Management of the German Armed Forces in Cologne.
The event was moderated by Andreas Edel, Executive Secretary of Population Europe in Berlin.
Security policy at the peak of demographic change
Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, one thing has become clear: the so-called “peace dividend” since the end of the Cold War was in fact a “peace loan.” For almost three decades, Europe felt secure and relied primarily on the defence capabilities of the transatlantic alliance. During this period, countries including Germany and France switched from having conscription to professional armies.
There are now calls for Europe to deploy considerable financial resources to rebuild its defense capabilities, and to do so in a relatively short time. This is not a matter of being able to provide specially trained and equipped forces for selective deployment in crisis areas - as before 1990, the focus is once again on defending the alliance's territory and deterring potential attackers. The difference today is that this territory is significantly larger and, since NATO's eastward expansion, it borders directly on the Russian Federation and its allies.
At the same time, a paradigm shift in foreign and security policy is underway. There is an increased willingness to take risks in foreign policy, as well as blatant territorial expansionism and disregard for international law in favour of the supposed “right of the stronger.” The acceptance or even deliberate infliction of large losses of civilians have become acceptable again in recent years by governments around the world. The lessons learned from World War II and the armed conflicts that have taken place since then are fading, and the achievements of the post-war order, notably the normalisation of rules-based foreign policy guaranteed by international institutions and committed to human rights, are becoming less important.
In order to protect the population of Europe from the dangers this poses, several challenges must be overcome:
- There is no longer unlimited time available for preparation. Repeated provocations show that Russia is already testing the resilience of the Western alliance. This is happening through hybrid warfare against EU states through cyberattacks, espionage and sabotage, attacks on critical infrastructure such as power grids, railways, and dams, and a Russian shadow fleet at sea that is used to circumvent sanctions.
- Higher defence spending competes with other urgent government investments in education, infrastructure, and environmental protection. At the same time, European countries are facing funding shortages, which are being exacerbated by demographic change that require shifts in spending, for example to pension system, healthcare, and public services in rural areas. Politicians are faced with the difficult task of prioritising spending and cutting back in areas that directly affect the lives of their citizens.
- The shortage of skilled workers in Europe is increasing: demographic change is already noticeable on the labour market today and will intensify over the next two decades as the last baby boomers retire. In 2024, the proportion of people aged 65+ in the population compared to those of working age between 15 and 64 was already 33.9% in the European Union and 35.2% in Germany – and it is rising (Eurostat 2025).
Security policy challenges therefore coincide with the effects of demographic change, which will become increasingly acute over the next decade. These structural pressures were the context for the event. The guest experts made it clear that armed forces will face challenges when it comes to money and materials, as well as qualified personnel. Below are other key points that came out in the discussion.
In competition for the best minds
- As digitalization progresses in the armed forces, the requirements for qualifications are changing and increasing. Growing competition from various sectors of the economy for people with such profiles is to be expected, as they all seek to recruit suitably qualified specialists.
- Demographic ageing also puts staffing pressures on the care and healthcare sectors, as well as in other public services, where there is already an increased reliance on “lateral entrants” or former employees have to be called back from retirement.
- The military is not the only sector facing challenges in recruiting personnel for security-related professions. Other security and emergency services, such as the police, fire and rescue services, disaster control, and other aid organizations will also have to cope with a shrinking recruitment pool in the future. This further complicates personnel planning and operational readiness for the armed forces by potentially increasing the competition for qualified personnel.
- A particular challenge for recruiting combat troops is the risk to life and limb associated with the job, which further reduces its attractiveness.
A “complementary approach”
Since public sector salaries are not always competitive, especially when compared to those typically offered in the IT industry, the shortage of skilled workers in the armed forces can only be addressed with what Robert Sieger called at the event a “complementary approach”:
- There are opportunities for vocational training, further education opportunities and study programs for time spent in military service. In many countries, the armed forces promote social mobility in this way, especially for people who would otherwise not be able to afford such training or study.
- There are many areas of responsibility across the army, air force, and navy, civil administration, defence ministries and subordinate authorities, and in bilateral and multinational organizations. These include, for example, work in logistics, administration, technology, training and advisory positions. This means there is a variety of possible career paths that people can continue before or after active service.
- In view of the increasing automation and digitalization of warfare, the defence sector has growing technical requirements and thus there is regular training on new developments. Young people who receive such training in the latest technologies and who have leadership experience from work in the armed forces have transferable skills that are attractive for later employment, for instance in the private sector.
“Serving the Nation”
Serving “one's country” or “the nation” is associated with social capital in many countries, especially in the United States, pointed out Jennifer Sciubba at the event. This initial motivation is less pronounced in other countries, such as Germany, due to historical experiences. Ultimately, however, society's appreciation of the service of the armed forces can increase recruitment potential.
- The challenge of recruitment in the armed forces should be seen against the backdrop of a positive development: since World War II, there have been no direct attacks on the transatlantic alliance territory, apart from September 11, 2001, and isolated terrorist attacks. Therefore, people in Europe do not feel the same sense of threat as they did during the Cold War. As a result, many people are less understanding of potentially necessary and unpopular measures, such as the reintroduction of compulsory military service in Germany, as they were before 1990. Differing perceptions of “how threatening” the situation is make social and political dialogue on these issues more difficult.
- At the individual level, people may find intrinsic value in the experience of social cohesion and mutual reliability working in the military. Altruistic motivations to take up such work are equally present, such as the want to promote freedom and democracy or to ensure the safety of others.
- Such professions require a fundamental willingness to use physical force and to seriously injure another person if necessary, or in the worst case, to kill them. Here, too, the strategy of military deterrence of potential attackers (sending the message “Don't even try”) can build bridges with people who are critical of the use of force on moral grounds.
The “demographic cross-section of the population”
At the event, Christian Leuprecht emphasized that the composition of the armed forces’ personnel should also reflect the demographic cross-section of the population. For one reason, integrating sociodemographic diversity increases social acceptance of the military. The idea that recruits are “citizens in uniform” is a central paradigm of the German Armed Forces. However, today's recruits are more heterogeneous than in the past in terms of age, health, marital status, gender, education, access to the labour market, and origin. This must be taken into account in recruitment and retainment strategies. There were other points in the discussion about the military changing along with demography and societal norms:
- Personnel recruitment is increasingly opening up to older and more experienced individuals. They may not be able to serve in combat troops due to age-related physical limitations, but they can still be employed in administrative, technical, training, or advisory roles. This is where the experience of older people, especially when it comes to managing challenges and critical situations, comes into play. According to Robert Sieger, age limits have been relaxed and the average age of soldiers in Germany is already rising slightly. On average, older personnel tend to stay for longer when appointed, which is another strategic advantage of recruiting this age group. The armed forces also promote the exchange of knowledge between older and younger generations through mentoring and re-mentoring. For example, older employees can benefit from the expertise of younger colleagues, for example in the IT sector.
- Robert Sieger highlighted that the proportion of women in the armed forces has risen steadily, but that there is still room for improvement. Women are now more active than ever before in many areas of the defence sector, but they are still underrepresented in combat troops and in senior ranks. This is partly due to the relatively recent opening of these two areas of the military to women. “Female leadership” is generally seen as an advantage for this recruitment group. That is why there is a desire to significantly increase the number of women in leadership positions. In this context, the military does not differ significantly from other areas of the labour market: the structural deficits observed there are also apparent and also reflect the differences in women’s labour market participation more generally (for example, in the old and new German federal states).
- Currently, the proportion of soldiers with a migration background in the German armed forces is still well below the share in the German population of just over one quarter of (Federal Statistical Office, 2025). Greater integration of people with diverse cultural and linguistic backgrounds into the armed forces is essential in the long-term. This can play an important role in wider long-term integration by reflecting social diversity of the population and enabling social advancement for those who face other structural barriers.
- The role of reservists is becoming more important, particularly in the context of homeland security and disaster control.
- The flexibility and adaptability of the defence sector’s human resource management must increase to keep up with the new challenges, including leadership for part-time staff, employees with shorter periods of service, and those with varied socio-demographic characteristics.
Conclusion and outlook
- Armed forces and emergency services are facing the challenge of adapting rapidly within a short period of time to various contextual changes, including demographic and socioeconomic conditions. They are under more competitive pressure than ever before due to a shortage of skilled workers that will only increase in the decades to come.
- This requires a more flexible personnel policy and openness to new recruitment potential, such as greater integration of older people, women, and people with migration backgrounds.
- At the societal level, appreciation for people who serve in the armed forces is a particularly important factor for the attractiveness of this service.
- The event highlighted alternatives to the reintroduction of compulsory military service, which is currently under discussion in Germany. However, this could still be unavoidable given the personnel shortages and the inability to recruit sufficient volunteers to meet defence needs.
References and recommended reading
Wenke Apt (2013). Broken Arms. Demographic change and Europe’s security capacities (Population & Policy Compact 5), Berlin: Max Planck Society/Population Europe.
https://population-europe.eu/research/policy-briefs/broken-arms
Wenke Apt (2013). Germany's New Security Demographics. Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging (Demographic Research Monographs). Dordrecht: Springer Science+Business Media. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6964-9
Eurostat (2025): Old-age-dependency ratio (population 65 years or over to population 15 to 64 years)
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00198/default/table?lang=en, abgerufen am 29.08.2025.
Christian Leuprecht (2020). The Demographics of Force Generation: Recruitment, Attrition and Retention of Citizen Soldiers. In: Thomas Juneau, Philippe Lagassé, Srdjan Vucetic (Hrsg.), Canadian Defence Policy in Theory and Practice. Canada and International Affairs. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26403-1_11
Tibor Szvircsev Tresch und Christian Leuprecht (2011): Europe without Soldiers? Recruitment and Retention across the Armed Forces of Europe (Queen's Policy Studies Series 146). McGill-Queen's University Press: Montreal.
Statistisches Bundesamt (2025), Gut jede vierte Person in Deutschland hat eine Einwanderungsgeschichte. Pressemitteilung Nr. 181 vom 22. Mai 2025
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2025/05/PD25_181_125.html (abgerufen am 31.08.2025).